On Thursday, the market continued to digest the Fed’s hawkish signals. Meanwhile, Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon, adding uncertainty to the fragile prospects for peace between the U.S. and Iran.
The U.S. Dollar Index extended its gains, reaching a high of 100.92 before closing up 0.44% at 100.82, hitting a more than one-year high;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.459%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.187%.
Spot gold followed an inverted V-shaped pattern, briefly approaching the $4,330 mark during the session before falling steadily, erasing all of its intraday gains and approaching the $4,200 threshold, ultimately closing down 1.14% at $4,209.15 per ounce;Spot silver also rose initially before falling, ultimately closing down 3.22% at $65.72 per ounce.
International crude oil traded sideways as several supertankers began transiting the Strait of Hormuz following the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.WTI crude oil fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, ultimately closing down 0.46% at $75.42 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.63% at $79.02 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 1.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.91%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) closed down 3.56%, having fallen as much as 10% during the session.The semiconductor sector remained strong throughout the day, with Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) up 7.27%, Intel (INTC.O) up 10.64%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) up 8.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.89%.

On Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, but the dot plot suggested that rates would rise later this year. Meanwhile, the presidents of the United States and Iran reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding online.
The U.S. Dollar Index surged strongly, breaking above the 100 mark, and ultimately closed up 0.84% at 100.37; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.491%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed at 4.197%.
Spot gold plunged following the release of the Fed’s interest rate decision, hitting a low of $4,218.99 per ounce. It ultimately closed down 1.7% at $4,257.78 per ounce, erasing all of its weekly gains and ending its four-day winning streak;Spot silver fell below the $68 mark, ultimately closing down 3% at $67.91 per ounce.
International crude oil extended its decline, experiencing sharp intraday volatility amid geopolitical developments in the Middle East.As Israel launched another strike on southern Lebanon and Trump threatened to resume bombing Iran if he was dissatisfied with the agreement, WTI crude briefly turned positive during the session but retreated after reports that the U.S. and Iran had signed an agreement, ultimately closing down 1.22% at $75.72 per barrel;Brent crude ultimately closed down 0.9% at $78.52 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3%.SpaceX (SPCX.O) closed down 5%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 1%, and Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.1%, with Li Auto (LI.O) falling 3%.

On Tuesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement, the market was marked by a strong sense of caution.The U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated lower and ultimately closed down 0.11% at 99.56; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.444%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed at 4.064%.
Spot gold rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, though the pace of the rally slowed somewhat, ultimately closing up 0.51% at $4,331.23 per ounce;Spot silver re-touched $71 per ounce during the session before pulling back, ultimately closing up 2.91% at $70.02 per ounce.
International crude oil hit its lowest level since early March, following reports that the U.S.-Iran agreement allows Iran to immediately sell crude oil abroad.WTI crude oil hit a low of $75.73 per barrel and ultimately closed down 5.76% at $76.70 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell below the $80 mark and closed down 4.47% at $79.24 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell 0.57%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.15%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose as much as 17% during the session and ultimately closed up 4.8%.M-Ville Technologies (MRVL.O) fell nearly 10%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 6%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.5%, and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) fell more than 4%.

On Monday, the United States and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities; the two sides will sign the agreement on Friday, at which point the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
The U.S. Dollar Index opened lower but rebounded, recouping all of its intraday losses to close up 0.006% at 99.67. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.474%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.079%.
Spot gold opened higher with a gap and maintained its upward momentum, approaching $4,370 per ounce during the session. It ultimately closed up 2.13% at $4,309.24 per ounce, marking its third consecutive trading day of gains;Spot silver briefly rose above $71 per ounce but narrowed its intraday gains during the U.S. session, ultimately closing up 2.91% at $69.98 per ounce.
International crude oil opened lower and traded sideways, with both WTI and Brent hitting their lowest levels since March 10.WTI crude briefly fell below the $80 mark, ultimately closing down 4.05% at $81.38 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 3.69% at $86.91 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.9%, the S&P 500 up 1.66%, and the Nasdaq up 3.07%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose nearly 20%, pushing its market capitalization past $2.5 trillion.NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose more than 3%, and Oracle (ORCL.N) rose more than 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.3%, with iQIYI (IQ.O) rising nearly 2%.

Last Friday, multiple sources hinted that a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was nearing signing, and the market closely monitored developments toward peace.
The U.S. Dollar Index traded sideways, remaining below the 100 mark, and ultimately closed up 0.109% at 99.8, recording its largest weekly decline since early May;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.489%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.093%.
Spot gold fluctuated around the $4,200 level, ultimately closing up 0.1% at $4,219.32 per ounce, marking its second consecutive weekly decline; spot silver also traded sideways, closing up 0.92% at $68 per ounce.
International crude oil extended its decline, marking its third weekly drop in the past four weeks. WTI crude hit an intraday low not seen since April 17, eventually closing down 2.7% at $84.82 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 2.76% at $86.09 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices all rose slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.3%.SpaceX (SPCX.O) closed up 19% on its first day of trading at $161.10, with a total market capitalization of $2.1 trillion, making it the sixth-largest publicly traded company in the U.S.Other aerospace-related stocks fell, with Virgin Galactic (SPCE.N) dropping more than 30% and Rocket Lab (RKLB.O) falling more than 10%. Arm (ARM.O) rose 11%, and Intel (INTC.O) gained 6.5%.The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.4%.

Based on statements from Trump, the Iranian foreign minister, and the Pakistani prime minister, Iran and the United States appear closer than ever to reaching a peace agreement.
Meanwhile, driven by rising energy prices caused by geopolitical conflicts, U.S. inflation has hit a three-year high. Although core inflation indicators suggest that price increases have not yet fully spread to the retail consumer sector, this has already altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Friday’s data showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved in June, with inflation expectations unexpectedly cooling. All three major U.S. stock indices rose slightly: the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%, with all three posting weekly gains.
International oil prices fell, hitting a three-month low. According to Bloomberg, as more oil tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, refined oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded this month, providing welcome relief to a supply-constrained market.
As market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate outlook shifted from “multiple rate cuts” at the start of the year to “maintaining high rates” or even “rate hikes,” U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both strengthened, putting significant pressure on precious metals, which became one of the victims of the liquidity crunch triggered by the energy shock.International spot gold broke below the 200-day moving average earlier this week and officially entered its first technical bear market in four years on Thursday. Its year-to-date gains have now been wiped out. Although it closed above $4,200 this week, it still posted its second consecutive weekly loss.

The U.S. Dollar Index has been volatile this week, initially supported by persistent inflation, but fell sharply after Trump said he might sign an agreement with Iran over the weekend. The index repeatedly tested and failed to hold the 100-point mark during the week and is expected to close lower.
Spot gold has generally weakened this week, falling to a six-month low and entering a bear market for the first time in four years, before recovering near $4,200 per ounce; it is likely to post its fifth consecutive weekly decline.Gold prices were initially weighed down by U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations, but rebounded after Trump called off a strike against Iran and concerns over energy inflation eased.
International crude oil prices fell significantly this week, with both WTI and Brent hitting roughly two-month lows.Trump’s cancellation of the strike on Iran and the prospect of a potential peace agreement quickly squeezed out the risk premium associated with the Strait of Hormuz. As energy inflation trades cooled, market sentiment shifted from supply panic to risk aversion.
Non-USD currencies showed mixed but generally stronger performance this week, with the overall recovery of non-USD currencies driven by the dollar’s pullback.The euro was boosted by the European Central Bank’s first rate hike in three years, briefly rising to near 1.159; the pound awaits guidance from the Bank of England and economic data; the yen remains hovering around the 160 level as concerns over dry weather intensify; the Australian dollar is affected by fluctuations in risk appetite.
The U.S. stock market experienced a dip followed by a rally this week, with the main theme shifting from concerns over an AI bubble to risk recovery following the de-escalation in the Middle East. Chip stocks rebounded, while energy stocks came under pressure from falling oil prices, and financial stocks strengthened as risk appetite improved.Oracle plummeted by about 12% at one point due to AI capital expenditure and debt pressures, while SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO bolstered sentiment toward tech risk assets, with the opening indicative price on its first trading day rising 29% above the IPO price.

On Thursday, after Trump called off plans for a new round of U.S. military strikes against Iran at the last minute and claimed that a U.S.-Iran agreement could be signed in Europe this weekend, the U.S. Dollar Index initially rose but then fell, plunging sharply during U.S. trading hours and dropping below the 100 mark. It ultimately closed down 0.35% at 99.69;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.472%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.072%.
Spot gold fell to an intraday low of $4,024 shortly after the open, then traded sideways, but surged sharply during the U.S. session, reclaiming the $4,200 level, and ultimately closed up 3.46% at $4,211.39 per ounce;Spot silver closed up 6.24% at $67.33 per ounce.
Crude oil traded in a downward trend during the session. WTI crude oil fell below the $90 mark and plunged sharply during the U.S. trading session, ultimately closing down 5.96% at $87.17 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 5.55% at $88.54 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.86%, the S&P 500 gained 1.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.54%. Intel (INTC.O) and Supermicro Computer (SMCI.O) rose 9%,NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 2%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) gained over 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.24%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) and JD.com (JD.O) fell more than 1%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index fell in the U.S. pre-session due to CPI data in line with expectations, but then Trump announced that he would resume the “heavy blow” against Iran, the U.S. index continued to rebound and returned to the 100 mark, and eventually closed up 0.09% at 100.04; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.559%, and the 2-year bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.158%. The 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy rates, closed at 4.158%.
Even though the CPI data moderated market expectations for a Fed rate hike, spot gold continued to fall as the U.S.-Iran cease-fire faltered, dropping nearly $200 during the day and eventually closing down 4.46% at $4070.56/oz; spot silver closed down 3.02% at $63.38/oz.
Crude oil opened up in the US pre-market session. WTI crude oil returned above the $90 mark, eventually closing up 3.36% at $92.69/barrel; Brent crude oil eventually closed up 2.88% at $93.74/barrel.
U.S. stocks closed down 1.87% on the Dow, 1.62% on the S&P 500 and 1.98% on the Nasdaq. Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) fell nearly 28 percent, while Tesla (TSLA.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) dropped more than 3 percent. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon closed down 0.28 percent, with NetEase (NTES.O) up nearly 4 percent and Global Data (GDS.O) down 7 percent.

On Tuesday, due to the fragile ceasefire situation in the Middle East, the dollar index fell first and then rose, almost showing a “V-shaped trend” during the day, and ultimately closed down 0.04% at 99.95; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.522%, the Fed’s policy rate sensitive to the 2-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.135%.
With market expectations of a Fed rate hike within the year heating up and a U.S. strike on Iran, spot gold fell sharply in the U.S. session, dropping to an intraday low of $4,236.77 during the session, and ultimately closing down 1.63% at $4,260.37 per ounce; spot silver closed down 4.1% at $65.36 per ounce.
Crude oil shook down during the day, but oil prices rebounded briefly after the U.S. crackdown on Iran.WTI crude oil fell below the $90 mark, and once fell to an intraday low of $86.96, then rebounded slightly, and ultimately closed down 2.91% at $89.68/barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed down 2.56% at $91.92/barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with the Dow closing up 0.17%, the S&P 500 down 0.26%, and the Nasdaq down 0.97%. Maverick Technology (MRVL.O) fell 7.6 percent, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) dropped 5.6 percent and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 3 percent. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index is down 0.39 percent, with Ideal Motors (LI.O) and Azera Motors (NIO.N) down about 3 percent.