The U.S. dollar index shocked higher this week and then fell back, is expected to end the two-week winning streak. The Middle East situation cooled down to weaken safe-haven buying, oil prices plunged to depress the inflation premium, but the U.S. PCE rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the core PCE of 3.3%, is expected to limit the dollar’s decline.
Spot gold fell and then repaired this week, once down to a two-month low near $4,365, then bounced back above $4,599, but still fearing a third consecutive weekly decline. Oil prices retreated to ease inflationary pressures, but high interest rates are expected to weigh on non-interest-bearing assets, and safe-haven demand cooled with expectations of a U.S.-Iranian ceasefire.
International crude oil fell sharply this week, WTI once fell below 90 dollars per barrel. Expectations that the U.S.-Iraqi ceasefire extension and Hormuz shipping restrictions may be lifted, triggering a rapid clearing of geopolitical premiums. Subsequent attention needs to be paid to the confirmation of the agreement, the resumption of shipping and the pace of supply repair.
Non-U.S. currencies this week overall by the U.S. dollar retreat boost, the euro, the pound is basically stable; the yen is still under pressure, the dollar against the yen close to the 160 mark, triggering Japan to intervene in the alert; the Australian dollar by the improvement in risk appetite support. The main line is the risk aversion dollar cooling and spread constraints coexist, the follow-up attention to the Japanese policy signals and the Fed’s expectations.
U.S. stocks continued risk appetite this week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow refreshing their closing highs. ai and chips are still the main line, but part of the funds rotated to healthcare and consumption; falling oil prices favor inflation expectations, and energy stocks are under pressure. Dell surged about 39% after hours on AI server demand and earnings guidance hikes, reinforcing AI capex trading.

On Thursday, it was reported that the U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams had agreed on a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), but sources familiar with the matter later said the Iranian side had not yet agreed to any MOU; U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jason Bassett said at a briefing that the U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams were still in ongoing consultations, and that Trump had clearly defined a number of “redlines Trump has clearly defined a number of “red lines” and will not accept a “bad deal”.
Driven by rising energy prices during the U.S.-Iranian conflict, U.S. PCE inflation growth hit a three-year high in April, and the dollar index extended its gains to end up 0.01% at 99.02; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.452%, while the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closed at 4.031%.
Spot gold rebounded from a two-month low touched during the session and once topped the 4,500 mark on reports that Iran and the U.S. had reached a framework agreement on a cease-fire, ending up 0.9% at $4,496.29 per ounce, while spot silver ended up 1.36% at $75.64 per ounce.
WTI crude oil extended its losses, ending up 1.05% lower at $91.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil ended down 1.43% at $93.57/barrel.
U.S. stocks S&P 500 index rose 0.58%, the Nasdaq rose 0.91%. Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 4.24%, Microsoft (MSFT.O) rose 3.47%, IBM (IBM.N) rose 3.53%, U.S. Rare Earths (USAR.O) rose 5.58%, Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 0.53%, and Ideal Motors (LI.O) fell 1.52%.

On Wednesday, with the United States to implement a “defensive strike” against Iran, the hope of a rapid end to the war becomes remote, the dollar index continued the previous session’s gains, and finally closed up 0.08% at 99.23; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.489%, sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate of the 2-year U.S. bond The yield closed at 4.041%.
Spot gold fell to a two-month low, approaching $4,400 per ounce during the session, before finally closing down 1.13% at $4,456.07 per ounce, as markets expect monetary policy to tighten to curb rising inflation, while there was no clear sign of an end to the war in Iran, and spot gold ended down 2.28% at $74.64 per ounce.
International oil prices plunged more than 4% after Trump said the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached a deal, and the White House denied Iranian media claims.WTI crude oil finally closed down 4.26% at $92.03/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 4.64% at $94.94/barrel.
The U.S. Dow closed up 0.36%, the S&P 500 gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.07%. Technology stocks diverged, Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 3.63%, continuing to record highs. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 1.66%, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) fell more than 6%, Intel (INTC.O) fell 1.4%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, dampening optimistic market expectations for a near-term ceasefire and thus boosting demand for the safe-haven dollar. The dollar index finally closed up 0.18% at 99.15; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.490%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.049%.
The situation in the Middle East is tightening again to exacerbate inflation concerns, the Fed rate hike is expected to warm up to suppress gold prices, spot gold shocked downward, and finally closed down 1.36% at $4,507.56 / ounce; spot silver finally closed down 1.41% at $76.92 / ounce.
The latest clash between the United States and Iran overshadowed the prospect of reaching an interim deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices surged more than 3%. WTI crude oil finally closed up 3.3% at $96.29/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 3.41% at $99.57/barrel.
The three major U.S. indices were mixed, with the Dow closing down 0.21%, the S&P 500 up 0.61% and the Nasdaq up 1.19%. Micron Technology (MU.O) closed up 19%, U.S. Rare Earths (USAR.O) closed up 9.6% and Intel (INTC.O) closed up 3.07%.

The United States and Iran are discussing a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz about 30 days after the two countries reach an agreement to end hostilities, sources said Monday. Once an agreement is reached, Iran would have a 30-day deadline to clear the strait of mines. The report also said that the ceasefire agreement reached in early April will be extended for 60 days. During this two-month ceasefire period, the two sides plan to negotiate on Iran’s nuclear program.
The U.S. dollar index opened lower and ended down 0.35% at 98.97; the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond closed at 4.563%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. bond, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closed at 4.132%.
Spot gold jumped higher and maintained a sideways trend during the day, eventually closing up 1.34% at $4,570.33 per ounce; spot silver eventually closed up 3.41% at $78.09 per ounce.
Market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices below $100 a barrel, even though both the U.S. and Iran downplayed the likelihood of a deal in the near future. wti crude ended down 6.91% at $90.29/bbl, while brent crude ended down 7.14% at $96.28/bbl.
U.S. stocks were closed for the day in observance of the Fallen Generals Memorial Day.

On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister met with Pakistan’s interior minister to discuss proposals to end the U.S.-Israeli war, according to Iranian media reports, while Tehran and Washington remain at odds over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ongoing energy supply disruptions could ripple through global prices, prompting traders to factor rate hike expectations into prices. The dollar index ended up 0.13% at 99.32; the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond closed at 4.563%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. bond, which is sensitive to Fed policy rates, closed at 4.132%.
Spot gold pushed below the 4500 mark during the session and ended down 0.79% at $4507.10 per ounce, continuing its second weekly decline, while spot silver closed down 1.57% at $75.52 per ounce.
WTI crude ended up 1.2% lower at $100.97 per barrel, while Brent crude ended up 0.81% lower at $105.25 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed up 0.58% on the Dow, 0.37% on the S&P 500, and 0.19% on the Nasdaq. Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 11.6%, leading the AI chip sector, while AMD (AMD.O) rose nearly 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 2.2%, with Azera Motors (NIO.N) down over 7% and Baidu (BIDU.O) down 2.58%.

Over the past five trading sessions, market participants have experienced a roller-coaster ride of emotional ups and downs, trudging through violent oscillations of extreme panic and sudden ecstasy.
At the start of the week, the market was thrown into intense anxiety as the US firmly rejected Iran’s initial diplomatic offer. This move led to an instant spike in crude oil prices and brought with it the threat of a serious rebound in inflationary pressures.
Intertwined with this geopolitical concern was a violent and hawkish repricing of monetary policy. Following the official confirmation of Walsh as Fed Chair, institutional money made a frantic bid for bets on a new era of aggressive and draconian tapering.
This emerging trading pattern set off a relentless wave of shock, with global equities and precious metals once severely suppressed under the weight of soaring global bond yields.
However, just when the technical pattern looked bleakest, the market narrative was completely reversed.
Driven by strategic mediation in the Middle East, a promising path to peace suddenly appeared. This breakthrough triggered a massive restorative risk appetite rally towards the end of the week.
As the geopolitical cloud finally begins to dissipate, traders are rebalancing their portfolios in a big way, building momentum for next week’s critically important bets on global stability.