One option under discussion at the White House is to expand the use of dyed diesel, also known as “red diesel.” Red diesel is chemically identical to regular diesel but is typically restricted to off-road uses, such as agricultural machinery, and is exempt from certain federal and state excise taxes.
The federal diesel excise tax in the United States is approximately 24 cents per gallon, with state taxes adding an average of about 36 cents. If the government were to temporarily allow more on-road vehicles to use tax-exempt red diesel, the end costs for farmers, truck drivers, and other diesel users could be directly reduced without the need to alter global trade flows.
Louisiana has already announced emergency measures allowing farmers and loggers to use off-road diesel on public roads during specific periods; Alabama and Nebraska have adopted similar approaches. State policies are primarily focused on the fall harvest season, with the aim of reducing transportation and machinery operating costs for agriculture.
The industry has also proposed adjustments to the Renewable Fuel Standard. Some refineries want red diesel to be excluded from the calculation of federal biofuel blending quotas. Industry estimates suggest that if such fuels were exempted and made available for purchase by farmers, prices could fall further by about 30 cents per gallon.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated on multiple occasions this week that he does not support a complete ban on diesel exports. The approach he has proposed involves working with refiners to adjust certain diesel flows and supply arrangements, thereby increasing domestic availability in the U.S. while maintaining exports.
This stance is tied to the operational logic of the refining industry.Refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast have long produced more diesel than the region’s domestic demand, with export markets absorbing the surplus. If exports were to suddenly stop, inventories would quickly build up, and refineries might be forced to reduce their crude oil processing volumes.
When refineries reduce processing volumes, it is not only diesel production that decreases. Gasoline and jet fuel production would also decline simultaneously, potentially shifting policy pressure originally aimed at diesel prices to other fuel markets. The White House therefore needs to strike a balance between lowering diesel prices and maintaining output across the entire refining system.
Tax relief is not without its implementation hurdles either. Bloomberg reports that a proposal to suspend the federal diesel excise tax has been discussed within the administration, but with the U.S. House of Representatives currently in its pre-election recess, procedural issues remain regarding how to implement the measure through legislative or administrative channels.
Diesel prices currently remain around $6.50 per gallon. Even if restrictions on red diesel are eased, Bloomberg estimates that the actual purchase price for some farmers may drop back below $6, but this is still significantly higher than the pre-Middle East war level of under $4.
The White House has not yet announced a final plan. The most clear-cut change at this stage is that a blanket export ban is being phased out as a primary option, and policy discussions are shifting toward tools such as taxes and fees, the scope of “red diesel,” biofuel regulations, and voluntary supply increases by refineries. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the U.S. will not halt diesel exports, but the way diesel flows from refineries to different markets may be adjusted.

The U.S. Dollar Index trended higher overall this week, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, rising inflation expectations, and higher U.S. Treasury yields.The DXY reclaimed the 100 psychological level, indicating that dollar bulls have regained the upper hand; in the latter half of the week, as oil prices and long-term yields retreated, the dollar’s upward momentum slowed somewhat, though no clear trend reversal has yet emerged. As of press time on Friday, it stood at 100.46.
Gold traded in a range for most of the week. Midweek, it experienced a sharp pullback following the Fed’s rate hike and the strengthening dollar, but buying interest at lower levels subsequently strengthened significantly. Gold prices reclaimed the $4,300 level and rebounded toward previous highs, trading at $4,372 per ounce as of this writing on Friday.Silver outperformed gold this week, also experiencing a rapid recovery after a midweek dip and breaking back above $66; as of press time, it was trading at $66.70 per ounce.
Oil prices experienced sharp volatility at high levels this week, shifting from a rapid rally driven by Middle East supply concerns to a unwinding of risk premiums following improvements in supply logistics; both Brent and WTI crude fell from three-digit levels. Geopolitical risks continue to provide support for oil prices, but the market has shifted from a one-sided chase of rising prices to a reassessment of the actual extent of supply disruptions.
Major non-U.S. currencies came under overall pressure this week, with a stronger U.S. dollar and changes in interest rate differentials remaining the dominant factors in the foreign exchange market. The euro briefly fell below the 1.15 level, while the British pound retreated to around 1.33, indicating overall weakness in European currencies;Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair broke through 157 and continued to rise; even after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the yen failed to stage a sustained rebound. The Australian dollar held up relatively well, with the 0.71 level serving as a key support zone.
U.S. stocks this week generally followed a pattern of falling first and then rebounding, with rapid sector rotation.Early in the week, trading in tech, semiconductor, and AI stocks cooled significantly, with capital temporarily shifting toward the energy and defensive sectors; as oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields retreated, tech stocks saw capital flow back in during the latter half of the week.Overall for the week, the Dow fell 1.69%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.08%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.72%. The Dow recorded its third consecutive week of declines, falling 1.7% for the week—its worst weekly performance since March.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve officials reiterated their priority of fighting inflation, and the market continued to price in higher interest rates for a longer period; in addition, the U.S. Senate rejected a resolution to limit Trump’s war powers against Iran by a vote of 50 to 49, meaning that the risk of continued conflict and fiscal expansion remains.
The U.S. Dollar Index ultimately closed up 0.1% at 101.24. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 8.5 basis points to close at 5.207%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, rose 2.1 basis points to 4.933%.
Iran’s Supreme Leader’s military adviser warned that the conflict could spread to the Indian Ocean and stated that the Strait of Hormuz “can never return to its previous state.” Safe-haven demand partially offset the downward pressure from the strong dollar and high real interest rates, and precious metals closed slightly lower.Spot gold extended Wednesday’s decline, eventually closing down 0.28% at $4,274.62 per ounce; spot silver closed down 0.92% at $63.85 per ounce.
According to sources close to the negotiations, the U.S. and Iran discussed a phased plan in New York, which includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. lifting economic sanctions. International oil prices closed higher, but intraday movements showed significant divergence.WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 1.85% at $93.82 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 3.5% at $107.04 per barrel.
U.S. stocks: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.31%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.02%,while the Nasdaq rose 0.01%. Arm (ARM.O) fell 7.88%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell 3.47%, and Oracle (ORCL.N) fell 3.49%; Meta Platforms (META.O) rose 4.5%,and Intel (INTC.O) rose 3.91%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.67%, with Baidu (BIDU.O) down 1.89% and Alibaba (BABA.N) down 0.14%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. September services PMI rose to a nearly five-year high, while the manufacturing PMI climbed to a more than four-year high. Combined with input costs accelerating due to rising oil prices, this reignited market concerns over further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that the risk of exceeding the inflation target has increased and that further rate hikes may be necessary.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose steadily, breaking through the 101 mark, surging 0.6% intraday to close at 101.14.U.S. Treasuries faced a sharp sell-off, with yields surging across the board and approaching their highest levels since 2007. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 15.4 basis points to close at 5.122%;the yield on the 2-year Treasury note—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—rose 15.6 basis points to 4.912%.
Spot gold fluctuated lower throughout the day, ultimately closing down 1.63% at $4,287.35 per ounce;Spot silver closed down 3.83% at $64.44 per ounce.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile, caught fire, and was adrift, with two casualties;Iran stated it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until its conditions were met, prompting a significant rebound in international oil prices. WTI crude surged 2.94% to $92.11 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed up 4.88% at $103.42 per barrel.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated higher, approaching 100.70 twice before falling sharply; it ultimately closed up 0.11% at 100.53.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 1.3 basis points, closing at 4.968%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, remained largely unchanged at 4.756%.
Constrained by a stronger U.S. dollar, spot gold maintained a downward trend during the Asian and European trading sessions. After approaching the 4,290 mark, it reversed its decline, rebounding by nearly $80, and ultimately closed up 0.34% at $4,358.58 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 1.49% at $67.01 per ounce.
Saudi Arabia is preparing to resume crude oil exports from the port of Yanbu and restart the East-West oil pipeline, while Gulf nations jointly urged the U.S. during the UN General Assembly to avoid further escalation with Iran, leading to a significant pullback in international oil prices.WTI crude plunged 2.37% to $89.48 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed down 1.49% at $95.27 per barrel.
In U.S. markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.36%, the S&P 500 edged up slightly, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%, setting another record closing high. Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 5%,SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose more than 3%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) gained 6.8%, and Cisco (CSCO.O) fell more than 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.32%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) gained 0.45%.

On Monday, Federal Reserve officials sent hawkish signals. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said, “Further rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation,” while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also stated that if inflation does not subside, rate hikes will be necessary.
The U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated higher during the day, ultimately closing up 0.21% at 100.42.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 4.2 basis points, closing at 4.955%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, rose 0.5 basis points to 4.757%.
The strengthening U.S. Dollar Index weighed on non-interest-bearing assets. Spot gold maintained a downward trend throughout the day, ultimately closing down 0.79% at $4,343.73 per ounce; spot silver closed down 0.34% at $66.02 per ounce.
Driven by optimism over the expected swift resumption of oil flows through Saudi Arabia’s damaged “East-West Oil Pipeline” and progress in U.S.-Iran efforts to restart negotiations, international oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day.WTI crude plunged 3.80% to $91.64 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed down 2.90% at $100.07 per barrel.
In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.71%, the S&P 500 rose 1.49%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.26%, setting a new closing high. Intel (INTC.O) rose 12%, Meta Platforms (META.O) rose 11%,Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 9%, Tesla (TSLA.O) gained 3%, and AMD (AMD.O) rose nearly 10%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.7%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) rising more than 2%.

Last Friday, following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, the market continued to assess the path of monetary tightening, with long-term yields experiencing intense volatility around key thresholds. The U.S. Dollar Index rose before retreating and entered a narrow trading range, ultimately closing down 0.02% at 100.21.The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 5.014% but ultimately closed down 1 basis point at 4.997%; the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, edged back slightly to 4.752%.
Thanks to the continuous decline in crude oil prices, which eased concerns about secondary inflation and alleviated the pressure of holding non-interest-bearing assets, spot gold briefly approached the $4,400 mark during the session and ultimately closed up 0.84% at $4,378.23 per ounce;Spot silver showed greater resilience, ultimately closing up 1.62% at $66.27 per ounce.
During the United Nations General Assembly, the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to engage in negotiations, and with repairs to Saudi Arabia’s oil pipelines progressing steadily, the geopolitical risk premium previously factored into prices continued to be unwound, putting downward pressure on international oil prices.WTI crude oil ultimately closed down 1.31% at $95.26 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.86% at $99.72 per barrel.
In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.19%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.39%. SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 10.99%,SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 2.46%, Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 3.92%, and NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 1.34%; Qualcomm (QCOM.O) fell 5.82%,Dell (DELL.N) fell 3.3%, and SpaceX (SPCX.O) fell 1.36%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.78%; Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 4.34%, and Baidu (BIDU.O) fell 0.11%.

On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index traded sideways above the 100 mark and ultimately closed down 0.08% at 100.2, ending its five-day winning streak.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell nearly 9 basis points to 4.939%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, dropped more than 7 basis points to 4.675%.
As falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, spot gold rebounded sharply, briefly breaking above the $4,380 mark during the session before giving back some of its gains; it ultimately closed up 1.82% at $4,341.82 per ounce;Spot silver rose more than 4% at one point during the session and ultimately closed up 3.49% at $65.21 per ounce.
International oil prices fell for the second consecutive trading day after reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is shipping oil via “ship-to-ship” transfers and plans to restore half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within a few days.WTI crude briefly fell below the $95 mark during the session and ultimately closed down 1.01% at $96.52 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 1.55% at $100.59 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices saw mixed performance,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq up 1.69%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 4.6%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 2.5%, AMD (AMD.O) rose 6%,Intel (INTC.O) rose nearly 7.6%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.16%; Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 1%, while Bilibili (BILI.O) fell 3%.
Major European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 index up 0.7%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index up 1.19%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.9%.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023, causing the U.S. Dollar Index to surge sharply above the 100 mark. It ultimately closed up 0.7% at 100.1, marking its largest single-day gain since June 17.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note staged a sharp V-shaped rebound, remaining above the 5% psychological threshold and ultimately closing at 5.027%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, rose more than 7 basis points to 4.749%.
Spot gold traded higher early in the session but later retreated, hitting an intraday high of $4,366.65 per ounce,but plummeted after the Fed announced its interest rate decision, falling as low as $4,235.24 per ounce, and ultimately closed down 0.7% at $4,264.26 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed down 1.05% at $63.01 per ounce.
International oil prices retreated somewhat as the Trump administration sought to ensure that the Saudi East-West oil pipeline could be repaired within a few days.After U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data showed a smaller-than-expected decline, WTI crude accelerated its decline at one point and ultimately closed down 3.43% at $97.50 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 2.66% at $102.17 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 1.2%, the S&P 500 down 0.44%, and the Nasdaq down 0.01%.Intel (INTC.O) rose 4%, SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose 5%, while Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Boeing (BA.N) fell nearly 4%.The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.55%; iQIYI (IQ.O) rose 8%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 2%.

On Tuesday, as risk aversion in the market intensified, the U.S. Dollar Index extended its gains, ultimately closing up 0.13% at 99.613—its highest level since the beginning of the month.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 5.04% during the session—its highest level since 2007—and ultimately closed at 5.008%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, rose to 4.676%.
Under continued pressure from a rising dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, spot gold traded sideways near the $4,300 level and ultimately closed down 0.11% at $4,294.14 per ounce;spot silver ultimately closed up 0.69% at $63.68 per ounce.
Concerns over crude oil supply were sparked by the crisis in the two Middle Eastern straits, and international oil prices continued their upward trend.Following reports that Oman and the U.S. were discussing ways to ease regional tensions, WTI crude briefly dipped but quickly recovered its losses, breaking through $102 per barrel during the session and ultimately closing up 3.01% at $100.96 per barrel;Brent crude ultimately closed up 1.74% at $104.96 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.45%, and the Nasdaq down 0.78%.Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 4%, Oracle (ORCL.N) fell 3%, and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 0.4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.1%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) falling 4.5%.
Major European stock indices closed lower across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 index closing down 0.15%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index closing down 0.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index closing down 0.38%.