On Monday, buoyed by both safe-haven sentiment and expectations of rising interest rates, the U.S. Dollar Index rose sharply, hitting a high of 99.736 before closing up 0.39% at 99.483—marking its largest single-day gain since the Jackson Hole symposium.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5% during the session—the first time in nearly three years—and ultimately closed at 4.991%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, climbed to 4.671%.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting approaching, soaring energy prices further intensified inflation concerns. Spot gold opened lower and continued to decline, falling below the $4,300 mark. It ultimately closed down 1.15% at $4,298.8 per ounce, hitting a new low in over a month;Spot silver ultimately closed down 1.96% at $63.24 per ounce.
International oil prices gapped higher at the open following the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline after it was attacked.WTI crude oil once again broke through the $100 per barrel mark during the session and ultimately closed up 1.44% at $98.01 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.41% at $103.16 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices fell: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.29%, the S&P 500 fell 0.48%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 7.6%, while Meta (META.O) rose 2.7%.ASML (ASML.O) fell 7.2%, while Intel (INTC.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) each fell more than 5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.36%, with NetEase (NTES.O) rising 2%.

Last Friday, the U.S. August core CPI came in higher than expected on a month-over-month basis, reigniting expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. The U.S. Dollar Index rose briefly before quickly falling back; it traded sideways throughout the day and ultimately closed up 0.031% at 99.1.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached a session high of 4.986%, edging closer to the 5% mark and hitting its highest level since October 2023; it ultimately closed at 4.974%. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, rose to 4.628%.
With expectations of a Fed rate hike and falling oil prices offsetting each other, spot gold prices fluctuated wildly, first falling and then rising with a trading range of over $110. It hit a low of $4,290.42 per ounce,peaking at $4,402.51 per ounce, before closing up 0.75% at $4,348.93 per ounce; spot silver closed up 1.43% at $64.50 per ounce.
International oil prices ended their four-day winning streak as Iran is set to meet with Gulf nations and a ceasefire on the western coast of the Red Sea signaled a de-escalation in the Middle East.WTI crude oil fell below the $97 mark, ultimately closing down 3.95% at $96.62 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 4.3% at $101.73 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98%, the S&P 500 gained 0.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.96%.Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 2.88%, Intel (INTC.O) rose 2.61%, SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose 2.04%, and Amazon (AMZN.O) rose 1.94%; SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell 3.5%,Oracle (ORCL.N) fell 1.82%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 0.22%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.4%, with Baidu (BIDU.O) up 0.89% and Alibaba (BABA.N) up 0.68%.

During a week of trading marked by oil prices returning to $100 and inflation expectations resurging, the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations, supply risks in the Middle East, and long-term interest rates emerged as the three key factors driving global asset markets.
This week, the U.S. released its August PPI and CPI data. The PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.3%; the CPI remained at 3.4% year-over-year—unchanged from July and in line with expectations—but the core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.2%.
Following the release of the data, the probability of a Fed rate hike next week in the interest rate swap market quickly rose to about 90%, up from 69% prior to the release. The market has even fully priced in two rate hikes this year.
Expectations of rate hikes are directly weighing on the bond market.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to around 4.97% this week, touching 4.98% intraday—its highest level since October 2023; the 30-year yield held steady around 5.36%, while the 2-year yield rose to 4.64%, causing the yield curve to flatten slightly.
In the stock market, all three major U.S. indices retreated from their highs over the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.57% for the week, the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.66%; however, after the CPI data was released on Friday, all three indices closed up about 1%, ending a four-day losing streak.
In the commodities market, crude oil was one of the strongest assets of the week. Brent crude rose 8.96% for the week to $104.91, while WTI briefly surged past $103 before retreating to around $100.60, still posting a double-digit weekly gain.
Precious metals, however, were weighed down by rising U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold closed the week at $4,348 per ounce, down 1.87%—marking its second consecutive week of declines; silver fell 2.7% to $64.21.
In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. Dollar Index closed at 99.1, down a marginal 0.07% for the week, with the index starting weak but ending strong. The yen was the strongest non-U.S. currency, appreciating 1.71% this week, driven by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the unwinding of carry trades.

The U.S. dollar started the week on a weak note but ended on a strong one. In the first half of the week, it briefly approached a two-week low, but in the second half, it rebounded significantly as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns, U.S. Treasury yields climbed, and expectations for a Fed rate hike intensified.Data released on Friday showed that the U.S. core CPI rose at an accelerated pace in August, leading the market to become almost certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Dollar Index surged briefly before falling back sharply, hovering around 99 as of around 9:00 p.m.
Gold retreated somewhat after fluctuating throughout the week. Safe-haven demand briefly pushed the price of gold above $4,440, but as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened, the price fluctuated lower as the market reassessed the balance between safe-haven demand and holding costs.Following Friday’s CPI data release, spot gold initially dropped but quickly reversed course and accelerated its rise, trading at $4,390 per ounce as of around 9:00 p.m.
Crude oil was one of the strongest-performing major assets this week, with both Brent and WTI crude breaking back above $100. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Saudi energy facilities, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have heightened supply concerns, prompting investors to continue chasing energy risk premiums.On Friday, as news of new diplomatic mediation emerged, oil prices fell sharply, and the market once again entered a period of high volatility. The U.S. dollar started the week weak but ended strong. In the first half of the week, it briefly approached a two-week low, but in the second half, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns, U.S. Treasury yields climbed, and expectations for a Fed rate hike intensified, the dollar rebounded significantly.Data released on Friday showed that the U.S. core CPI rose at an accelerated pace in August, leading the market to become almost certain that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Dollar Index surged briefly before falling rapidly; as of around 9:00 p.m., it was hovering near 99.
Gold retreated somewhat after fluctuating throughout the week. Safe-haven demand briefly pushed gold prices above $4,440, but as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened, gold prices fluctuated lower as the market reassessed the balance between safe-haven demand and holding costs.Following Friday’s CPI data release, spot gold initially dipped but quickly reversed course and accelerated its upward movement, trading at $4,390 per ounce as of around 9:00 p.m.
Crude oil was one of the strongest-performing major assets this week, with both benchmark grades breaking back above $100.Escalating tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Saudi energy facilities, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have heightened supply concerns, prompting investors to continue chasing energy risk premiums. On Friday, as news of new diplomatic mediation emerged, oil prices fell sharply, and the market once again entered a period of high volatility.

On Thursday, the euro weakened following the European Central Bank’s interest rate announcement. Combined with a stronger-than-expected rise in the PPI, which boosted expectations for a Fed rate hike next week, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed back above the 99 mark, ultimately closing up 0.28% at 99.08.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose nearly 12 basis points to close at 4.967%, hitting a new three-year high; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed up more than 15 basis points at 4.594%.
Under pressure from the simultaneous rise in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, spot gold fell sharply, at one point plunging $120 from its daily high, and ultimately closed down 1.94% at $4,316.76 per ounce;spot silver ultimately closed down 5.48% at $63.6 per ounce.
International oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day as attacks on shipping in the Middle East continued to escalate, with a new round of attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia heightening market concerns about the region’s supply outlook.WTI crude oil broke through the $100 mark, ultimately closing up 6.73% at $100.59 per barrel, hitting its highest level since May 20; Brent crude oil closed up 6.71% at $106.30 per barrel.U.S. diesel prices broke through the $6 per gallon mark.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.58%, and the Nasdaq down 0.65%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 2.2%,Intel (INTC.O) fell 5.5%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 5.2%, and Apple (AAPL.O) rose 3.5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.66%, while NIO (NIO.N) fell 3%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index fell for the third consecutive trading day, ultimately closing down 0.06% at 98.78.After the Treasury announced the scale of its repurchase operations on Thursday, U.S. Treasuries fell rather than rose; the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 5 basis points to close at 4.849%, hitting a nearly three-year high;the yield on the 2-year Treasury note—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—rose more than 3 basis points to close at 4.442%.
Against the backdrop of a weak dollar, precious metals regained their appeal as safe-haven assets. Spot gold reclaimed the psychological threshold of $4,400, reaching a high of $4,434.1 per ounce, and ultimately closed up 1.07% at $4,402 per ounce;spot silver ultimately closed up 2.32% at $67.28 per ounce.
The latest round of escalating clashes between the U.S. and Iran has intensified tensions in the Gulf, driving international oil prices higher. Brent crude futures broke through the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since July 24.WTI crude briefly touched the $95 mark and ultimately closed up 2.16% at $94.25 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed up 1.99% at $99.62 per barrel. European natural gas prices surpassed 80 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time since 2023.
All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.77%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.64%. Apple (AAPL.O) fell 0.2%, while SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 7%.AMD (AMD.O) gained 3%, and Meta Platforms (META.O) rose 6.5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 2.08%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) falling 2.8% and iQIYI (IQ.O) dropping 5%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index traded in a narrow range, failing to break through the 99 mark during the session, and ultimately closed down 0.07% at 98.85. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, rose more than 3 basis points to close at 4.408%;while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by a smaller margin, closing at 4.795%.
As rising oil prices fueled inflation and the risk of higher interest rates, spot gold fell below the psychological $4,400 threshold, dropping nearly $100 from its intraday high at one point, and ultimately closed down 1.15% at $4,355.55 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed down 0.64%, at $65.76 per ounce.
As the U.S. and Iran continued to exchange attacks, and the Houthi rebels launched large-scale attacks on Saudi military and oil facilities, international oil prices rose for the second consecutive trading day.WTI crude oil broke through the $92 mark, ultimately closing up 1.65% at $92.26 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.97% at $97.68 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.58%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.32%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 2%, while Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 3%.Intel (INTC.O) rose 9%, and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) gained 4.8%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.7%; iQIYI (IQ.O) surged nearly 12%, while Baidu (BIDU.O) fell 7%.

On Monday, driven by the yen’s strength, the U.S. Dollar Index came under downward pressure, falling below the 99 mark and ultimately closing down 0.26% at 98.91.The USD/JPY pair briefly approached the 154 level, hitting its lowest point since February 23, and fell more than 1% on the day. The U.S. Treasury spot market was closed for the Labor Day holiday.
In light holiday trading, spot gold traded sideways around the $4,400 mark, touching a low of $4,381.13 per ounce before closing down 0.54% at $4,406.44 per ounce;spot silver ultimately closed down 0.06% at $66.18 per ounce. Amid turmoil over U.S. tariff expectations, LME copper rose to $14,533, setting a new all-time high.
International oil prices opened higher and continued to rise as the U.S. and Iran exchanged attacks on oil tankers again over the weekend, and Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities were attacked on Monday.WTI crude oil touched the $91 mark during the session and ultimately closed up 1.62% at $90.76 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.37% at $95.79 per barrel.
U.S. stock markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday.
Major European stock indices showed mixed results: Germany’s DAX 30 index closed down 0.15%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index fell 0.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.17%.

Last Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August far exceeded market expectations, pushing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to nearly 60 percent. Trump praised the data but once again called on the Fed to cut interest rates significantly, warning that he would otherwise cut off trade with countries that run a trade deficit with the U.S.
Following the release of the strong nonfarm payrolls data, the U.S. Dollar Index briefly surged by 40 points. However, its gains narrowed amid Trump’s pressure on the Fed to cut rates, and it ultimately closed up 0.168% at 99.16;The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed up more than 3 basis points at 4.3703%, having touched 4.42% during the session—its highest level since January 2025; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose about 1 basis point to close at 4.789%.
Under pressure from the market pricing in a hawkish Fed stance, spot gold fell more than 2% at one point during the session, hitting a low of $4,365.76 per ounce,before recouping most of its losses to return above the psychological $4,400 mark, ultimately closing down 0.96% at $4,430.33 per ounce; spot silver closed down 1.13% at $66.22 per ounce.
As a new round of military escalation between the U.S. and Iran intensified market concerns over supply, while rare signs that the Russia-Ukraine conflict was nearing an end weakened the geopolitical risk premium, international oil prices traded sideways ahead of the upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday.WTI crude oil once again failed to break through the $90 mark, ultimately closing down 0.42% at $89.31 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.14% at $94.50 per barrel. The average U.S. retail price for diesel hit a record high of $5.85 per gallon.
All three major U.S. stock indices fell: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.51%, the S&P 500 fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.29%.Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 5.92%, Apple (AAPL.O) dropped 2.51%, and Microsoft (MSFT.O) declined 2.04%;The AI chip supply chain sector performed strongly, with SanDisk (SNDK.O) up 11.9%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) up 8.14%, Micron Technology (MU.O) up 6.1%, and Intel (INTC.O) up 4.51%.The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.89%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) down 1.75%, Baidu (BIDU.O) up 4.07%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) up 1.26%.

Over the past week, global markets were buffeted by multiple negative factors: geopolitical conflicts drove up energy inflation, global sovereign bonds faced a collective sell-off, and the Federal Reserve’s alternating hawkish and dovish stances stirred up interest rate hike expectations. The week ultimately concluded with a blockbuster nonfarm payrolls report that far exceeded expectations and extreme threats from Trump.
As the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire again for the first time in a month, both WTI and Brent crude posted their largest weekly gains since late July. However, trading was relatively light on Friday as investors were reluctant to significantly increase their positions ahead of the Labor Day holiday. Under dual pressure from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, prices for refined petroleum products such as diesel continued to climb.U.S. retail diesel prices rose to a record high.
As strong nonfarm payroll data fueled expectations of a Fed rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower across the board on Friday, but sharp gains in semiconductors, memory, and optical communications collectively limited the overall decline in the indices.The S&P 500 fell 0.38%, posting a slight weekly gain of 0.09%; the Nasdaq fell 0.29%, rising 0.4% for the week; and the Dow fell 0.51%, declining 0.27% for the week.
Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note—which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—briefly touched 4.42%, hitting its highest level since January 2025, while long-term yields remained largely unchanged during the day.However, amid concerns over energy inflation, fiscal deficits, and massive supply, global long-term government bond yields have recently collectively hit new cycle highs. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surpassed 3% for the first time, reaching its highest level since 1996.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.82% this week, reaching its highest level since November 2023, with the key 5% threshold now within reach.
Gold prices fluctuated sharply in response to expectations of a Fed rate hike. On Thursday, they surged more than 2% after Fed Governor Waller struck a dovish tone, but less than 24 hours later, “shocking” nonfarm payroll data quickly reversed market expectations.International spot gold prices fell more than 2% at one point on Friday but subsequently rebounded slightly due to pressure from Trump to cut interest rates, ending the week with a modest decline of 0.52%.
In the coming week, the Federal Reserve will enter its quiet period ahead of the September policy meeting, and investors’ attention will shift to the PPI and CPI reports. Additionally, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.