This week, the U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly before falling back significantly. At the start of the week, surging oil prices combined with government bond sell-offs in various regions led the market to revisit the “inflation resurgence—Fed rate hike” narrative, with the dollar briefly testing the 100 mark;On Thursday, after Waller signaled a bias toward holding rates steady in September, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, and the DXY quickly fell back to around 99. Following the release of strong nonfarm payroll data on Friday, the dollar index surged rapidly and, as of this writing (around 9:00 p.m. Beijing time), was fluctuating near 99.2.
Gold first retreated and then rebounded this week. Early in the week, against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar and rising global long-term yields, it fell below $4,300 and faced technical selling pressure below the 200-day moving average; subsequently, as expectations for a Fed rate hike cooled, the gold price recovered to $4,400 and once again approached $4,500.Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, gold faced a sell-off, dropping more than $70 in the short term—a daily decline of over 1.6%—and briefly dipping below the $4,400 per ounce mark during the session.
Crude oil was one of the strongest assets with the clearest trend this week, with WTI briefly breaking through $90 and Brent climbing above $95, both reaching approximately six-week highs. The core driver was the resurgence of large-scale military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which brought the risk of supply disruptions back into pricing.Signs of Russia-Ukraine peace talks briefly weighed on oil prices, but were insufficient to eliminate the Middle East risk premium.
Non-U.S. currencies showed marked divergence this week, with the yen serving as the primary driver. The USD/JPY pair briefly tested 160 early in the week but quickly retreated to around 155 amid a sharp rise in expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike and concerns over dry weather;The euro fluctuated mainly around 1.16, as the energy shock intensified European inflation concerns, though it lacked the momentum for an independent breakout; the British pound briefly fell below 1.35, weighed down by soaring UK government bond yields and fiscal pressures; the Australian dollar, meanwhile, stabilized again near 0.72 after the dollar weakened.
U.S. stocks followed a pattern of “rate shock—bounce from oversold levels—renewed embrace of growth” this week. Early in the week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average came under pressure, with energy stocks bucking the trend while chip stocks and high-valuation growth stocks were under pressure;After yields moderated on Wednesday, capital flowed back into semiconductors, regional banks, and oversold sectors. On Thursday, Waller’s dovish remarks further fueled a collective rebound in the three major indices, with technology, AI, software, and consumer discretionary stocks once again leading the gains.

On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to decline throughout the day. After Federal Reserve Governor Waller made remarks, traders scaled back their expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, causing the index’s decline to widen further. It ultimately closed down 0.56% at 98.99;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed down 0.9 basis points at 4.775%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed down 3.1 basis points at 4.348%.
As U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated, spot gold extended yesterday’s rally, briefly surging above $4,500 during the session but failing to hold that level; it ultimately closed up 1.96% at $4,473.31 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 2.54% at $66.97 per ounce.
Oil prices hovered near a six-week high as new U.S. strikes against Iran and renewed threats from Israel toward Tehran heightened concerns over disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.WTI crude briefly surpassed the $90 mark during the session but later gave up some of its gains, ultimately closing up 0.58% at $89.64 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 0.34% at $94.62 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices rose more than 1%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 1.06%, and the Nasdaq up 1.4%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 5.4%,NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 1.8%, SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose 6.4%, and Ctrip (TCOM.O) fell 5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.83%, with NetEase (NTES.O) dropping more than 1%.
Major European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 index up 0.63%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index up 0.7%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.32%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index rose initially but then fell, plummeting sharply ahead of the U.S. trading session amid market speculation that the Japanese government had intervened. It ultimately closed down 0.1% at 99.56;The USD/JPY pair also plummeted during the U.S. and Japanese trading sessions, falling below 159, and ultimately closed down 0.92% at 158.69;The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed down 1.9 basis points at 4.784%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed down 3.1 basis points at 4.379%.
As U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated, spot gold rebounded, briefly approaching $4,400, and ultimately closed up 1.35% at $4,387.43 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 1.94% at $65.31 per ounce.
As the market continued to assess the impact of renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran, crude oil prices rose initially but then fell.WTI crude briefly surpassed the $90 mark during the session but then quickly retreated, giving up all of its intraday gains, and ultimately closed down 0.28% at $89.12 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 0.11% at $94.30 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.56%, the S&P 500 up 0.46%, and the Nasdaq up 0.45%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Oracle rose 3%,SK Hynix (SKHY.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) rose more than 2%, while Dell (DELL.N) surged 15.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.06%, with NIO (NIO.N) falling 5%.
Major European stock indices closed lower across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 index down 0.5%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index down 0.3%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.11%.

On Tuesday, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated once again, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to strengthen throughout the day, eventually closing up 0.24% at 99.65;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 4.7 basis points at 4.803%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed up 5.6 basis points at 4.410%.
Pressured by high U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, spot gold fluctuated lower, falling to around $4,320—a drop of more than $100 from its intraday high—and ultimately closed down 2.7% at $4,328.78 per ounce;Spot silver followed gold lower, ultimately closing down 3.72% at $64.07 per ounce.
Crude oil surged more than 4% amid intensifying market concerns over global supply disruptions.WTI crude oil continued to rise throughout the day, briefly approaching the $90 mark, and ultimately closed up 4.65% at $89.37 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 4.51% at $94.41 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.79%, the S&P 500 down 0.7%, and the Nasdaq down 1.03%. Oracle (ORCL.N) fell 5%, while Micron Technology (MU.O) and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) each fell more than 2%,Apple (AAPL.O) rose 2%, while Dell (DELL.N) fell 7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.34%, with Gaotu (GOTU.N) rising 13% and NIO (NIO.N) falling 4%.
Major European stock indices closed lower across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 index down 1.1%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index down 0.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.8%.

On Monday, as the market continued to digest comments made last week by Federal Reserve Chair Wash, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated lower and ultimately closed down 0.27% at 99.41;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 3.9 basis points at 4.756%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed up 0.2 basis points at 4.354%.
Spot gold traded in a narrow range near its two-week low, eventually closing down 0.12% at $4,448.98 per ounce; spot silver followed gold’s fluctuations, eventually closing up 0.35% at $66.54 per ounce.
Crude oil opened higher and continued to rise as renewed military operations between the U.S. and Iran sparked market concerns over global supply disruptions.WTI crude opened higher and trended upward, briefly approaching $86 during the session, and ultimately closed up 3.19% at $85.40 per barrel; Brent crude reclaimed the $90 mark and closed up 2.68% at $90.33 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.33%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.12%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 5.5%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) gained over 1%.SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 2%, and SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 5.5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 2.18%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) falling 4%.